Russia After Putin

Charter for Democratic Transition and Accountability in Post-Putin Russia

The discussion on “Russia after Putin” centred around the uncertain future of Russia after President Putin, particularly in the wake of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the deepening authoritarianism under his rule. The panel, featured Vladimir Kara-Murza, potential ‘Russian President in-exile’, and human rights advocate; Gennady Gudkov, Russian opposition politician; Lyubov Sobol, Russian opposition politician and lawyer; Marina Ovsiannikova, Russian journalist and opposition figure; Maria Alyokhina Member of Pussy Riot; Marianna Yarovskaya, Russian-American filmmaker; and Dr. Pavel Podvig, Director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project. It explored various scenarios that might unfold if Putin were to leave power, including the potential for a democratic transition, a power struggle within the elite, or the emergence of another authoritarian figure. 

They identified the war in Ukraine as a pivotal factor that could alter Russia’s internal dynamics. It has placed immense strain on the economy, intensified repression, and caused fissures within the elite. This pressure could eventually lead to shifts in loyalty among political and military leaders, potentially destabilizing Putin’s hold on power. At the same time, the unpredictability of such transitions in authoritarian states makes it difficult to foresee whether this would lead to a more liberal regime or further entrenchment of autocracy.

The panelists debated the role of the West, with some arguing that Western countries should isolate the Russian regime and strengthen sanctions, while others emphasize the importance of engaging with Russian civil society and supporting independent media and exiled dissidents. The panel discussion concluded on a note of cautious optimism, acknowledging the resilience of democratic forces in Russia while recognizing the immense obstacles they face in the near future.